A new report has found that the environmental challenge caused by booming global demand for cooling could be far greater than previously thought
The report by Dearman, a clean cold and power technology company, indicates that due to changing demographics, particularly in Asia, the number of refrigerated vehicles on the road could feasibly reach 15.5 million by 2025, up from less than 3 million in 2013.
It states that if changing demographics have the most dramatic foreseeable effect then this number could be as high as 18 million refrigerated vehicles on the road by 2025 – double previous estimates.
This rapid expansion in cold transportation is said to reflect the growth of more affluent lifestyles amongst increasingly wealthy, urbanised populations in countries such as India and China.
The report said: “As these populations grow, it’s necessary to install cold chains to ensure more food reaches consumers in good condition, in order to prevent hunger and rising prices. It is also an indicator of much broader demand for cooling as economies grow and countries address issues such as food loss and public health.
But if this growth in demand occurs without new technologies being introduced, the environmental effects could be devastating.
A conventional diesel powered transport refrigeration unit, which keeps a refrigerated lorry cold, can emit up to six times as much NOx and up to 29 times as much particulate matter as a modern diesel HGV engine.”
Discussing the report, Toby Peters, Senior Group Managing Director said: “The potential growth of the global transport refrigeration fleet is frightening. In order to reduce food loss, meet growing middle class demand and address hunger, it’s obvious that more comprehensive cold chains are needed.
But we must not create an environmental disaster to prevent a social crisis.
By thinking smarter about cold, delivering new infrastructure and enabling clean cold technologies to flourish we can meet international demand without causing irreparable damage.”
He added: “Our research has analysed potential growth in the market for transport refrigeration vehicles as an indicator of the booming demand for cold. We are not predicting that the global fleet will reach 18 or even 15 million vehicles.
But our report demonstrates that the industry could experience extremely rapid growth and we must be prepared.
If we aren’t, and if we allow growth to happen using yesterday’s technology rather than tomorrow’s, then the air quality and climate change implications would be very significant and extremely damaging.”
Commenting on the report, Pawanexh Kohli, Chief Advisor & CEO, National Centre for Cold-chain Development, India said: “Globally, civilisation has reached a tipping point where our capacity to feed our growing numbers is of serious and increasing concern.
Science has enabled us to increase food production, but much of what we produce perishes before it can reach the people we need to feed. It has therefore become imperative that mankind fully grasps and controls clean cold energy, so that our species can continue to thrive and prosper.
The need to develop cold-chain connectivity is, if anything, more important in India than elsewhere. India is the single largest concentration of vegetarians and cold-chain is the only viable mode of delivering fresh foods to our consumers, the bridge between farms and consumers over vast distances.”
This report follows recent studies by the IMechE (A Tank of Cold: Cleantech Leapfrog to a More Food Secure World) and the Carbon Trust (The emerging Cold Economy), which also identify the rapidly growing future demand for cooling, along with the opportunity to establish a new industry to provide alternative clean cold technologies.
A downloadable copy of the report Cold chains and the demographic dividend is available at http://www.dearmanengine.com